Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that "victory" over Hamas is within reach. However, current data and reports suggest a more complex and challenging situation.

 

Gaza a seen from above

(key: Red zones are the combat ineffective zones

       Yellow zones are degraded

       White areas are the combat effective zones).

Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claims that "victory" over Hamas is near, recent analyses suggest a different picture. Reports from the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, the Institute for the Study of War, and CNN indicate that nearly half of Hamas’ military battalions in northern and central Gaza have managed to partially rebuild their fighting capabilities, even after more than nine months of Israel's intensive offensive.

Netanyahu, under increasing international pressure to agree to a ceasefire and negotiate a hostage release, has asserted that Israeli forces are close to achieving their objective of dismantling Hamas. In a July 24 address to Congress, he reiterated that "victory is in sight."

However, forensic analyses of Hamas' military operations, drawing on various sources including Israeli and Hamas statements, ground footage, and expert interviews, cast doubt on these claims. Although Israel has inflicted significant damage on Hamas, including the killing of key figures and a reduction of its once-professional fighting force to a more guerrilla-style army, the group's military resilience remains notable.

Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was reportedly assassinated in Tehran last week, an attack Iran attributes to Israel. While Israel has not confirmed this, it has acknowledged the killing of Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, in a July 13 airstrike, though this has not been confirmed or denied by Hamas. 

Despite the ongoing Israeli offensive, research up to July indicates that Hamas has effectively utilized its remaining resources. The analyses reveal that several Hamas units have reemerged in strategically significant areas previously cleared by Israeli forces through intense battles and bombardments. The group has managed to salvage remnants of their battalions and replenish their ranks in these areas.

Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for the Critical Threats Project, noted, “The Israelis would say that they cleared a place, but they haven’t fully cleared these areas, they haven’t defeated these fighters at all.” This insight is part of a joint study with the Institute for the Study of War, which examined patterns of Hamas and Israeli military activities.

“(Hamas) are ready to fight and want to fight.”

The Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office have not responded to our  requests for comment on these findings.